Agriculture Risk Models and Maps

Early Warning System: Predicting introductions of pests and pathogens in the US

International travel offers an extensive network for introductions of exotic pests and pathogens, freeing any previously held geographical constraints. Linking medical facilities with areas at high risk for introductions can assist in prioritizing training and detection services for emerging diseases.

Funding: USDA Farm Bill Grant
DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2018.0260
Additional Background: AgCROS Link

Covid-19 Zika Ebola HLB

Go to Introduction Risk Tool

A probabilistic model that integrates international travel with U.S. census data and epidemiological characteristics to estimate introduction risk at multiple scales. An online interface provides ease-of-use for regulatory agencies for early detection of high-risk exotics.

Risk-Based Survey: Deployment strategies for early detection and rapid response

Conducting surveys help growers and regulatory agencies to detect diseases and pests earlier in the epidemic phase, take appropriate mitigation action, and reduce economic and production losses. We have generated risk-based surveys implemented in the US and abroad:

PPV in New York (aiding eradication in 2019) and California
ACP/HLB in citrus-producing states (CA, FL, TX, AZ) and internationally (Argentina, Chile [under development])
Multi-Pest Survey (MPS) in Florida for critical citrus pathogens

An interactive dashboard allows stakeholders and decision makers to visualize the spatiotemporal risk progression and underlying risk factors.

Funding: USDA Farm Bill, CRB/CDFA
Additional Background: AgCROS Link

HLB PPV

Go to Risk Map Dashboard

To assist with real-time manpower availability and fiscal resources that can impact effective survey programs, we integrated a tool to assist with guiding deployment efforts in risk-based survey designs.

McRoberts, N., Garcia Figuera, S., Olkowski, S., McGuire, B., Luo, W., Posny, D., and Gottwald, T. (2019). Using models to provide rapid programme support for California's efforts to suppress Huanglongbing disease of citrus. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B. 374: 20180281. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2018.0281
Gottwald, T., Luo, W., and McRoberts, N. (2017). Risk-based HLB Surveys for California: statewide and targeted. Citrograph 9(2): 38-43.
Gottwald, T., Luo, W., and McRoberts N. (2014). Risk-based Residential HLB/ACP Survey for California, Texas and Arizona. Citrograph 5(2): 52-59.

Phyto-Risk: Analyzing management practices throughout seed production

A probabilistic model to quantitatively assess the effects of management practices along the seed production pathway on phytosanitary risk for bacterial, viral and fungal pathosystems.

Funding: TASC

Go to Phyto-Risk Model

The Bayesian modeling approach provides methods to conduct pathway analyses and a framework on which to enhance systems approaches to management.

Post-Hurricane and catastrophic weather events: Targeting survey efforts

Meteorological events are effective at dispersing pests and inoculum over great distances.

Canker CBS

Go to Hurricane Tool

We extended the initial predictive model to estimate spread via extreme weather events as a means for efficiently allocating resources in targeted survey and detection programs post-event. An interactive interface provides ease-of-use for guiding survey efforts post-hurricane event.

TOOLS